What might become of the UK?

When Theresa May called for a snap election in April, everyone predicted a landslide Tory win. Currently, the working majority of the Conservatives is 17 seats strong, and every poll predicted that the Tories would increase this majority. Now, on the day of the election, the possible outcome is not so clear anymore. In the past month, there have been two terrible terrorist attacks in the United Kingdom, France has a new, pro-EU president, the party manifestos came out, and slowly but steadily, the Labour Party has been catching up in the polls. How did this happen?

The Conservative Party highlighted the Brexit negotiations as the first priority in their programme which made them vulnerable to criticism on their views on domestic issues. The TV debates and the criticism from the other parties focused on their social policy, the number of armed police officers, and immigration.

On the other hand, the Labour Party’s manifesto made attractive promises regarding domestic affairs. Naturally, the fulfilment of these promises depends heavily on available funds, nonetheless, they are appealing to the public. Moreover, the Labour Party was hoping to portray Theresa May as an unreliable Prime Minister, recalling occasions when she seemingly changed her mind during the last year. Mrs May was on the Remain-side in the Brexit referendum, last autumn she claimed that she was not going to call for a snap election, and she announced a U-turn in the party’s social care policy just a few weeks ago. It seems that this tactic worked out quite well. Though, in the case of the Labour Party, the lack of clear ideas concerning the possible funding of the pledged policies and Jeremy Corbyn’s past actions with the IRA provided base for criticism.

Right now, the polls predict a range of possibilities for today’s outcome. Let’s see what the different scenarios would mean.

1. Landslide victory for the Conservatives

Likely? Maybe.

This would be the outcome that the Tories hoped for. It would be the best result for them since Margaret Thatcher’s third re-election in 1987, more than adequate reason to open a bottle of champagne. It would be enough for Theresa May to pursue whatever deal she wishes in the Brexit negotiations without having to fear the backbenchers in her party.
This would be a crushing blow for Labour, especially after the improving polls in the last weeks. Calls within the party for Jeremy Corbyn to step down would get stronger.

2. An improved majority for the Conservatives, but by no means the triumph they hoped for

Likely? Yes.

Not quite the result they hoped for, but it would still mean a comfortable majority for Theresa May to govern. She would get a better result than her last 5 predecessors did.
Labour would lose seats, and if all those seats went to the Tories, the loss would be substantial.

3. Tory majority, but no improvement

Likely? Perhaps.

It would be a huge disappointment for the Conservatives. If they lost seats, it would seem as a pointless election as they would come out worse for wear. Theresa May’s authority would be questioned, and she would be vulnerable to the pressure of the backbenchers in her party.
Labour’s share of votes would probably determine Jeremy Corby’s future. If he got more than Ed Miliband did in 2015, he would probably continue as party leader, if not, many would be pressuring him to stand down.

4. Hung parliament

Likely? Not really, but could happen.

If the Conservatives stay the largest party, and math is in their favour, they might continue governing, possibly in a coalition with Northern Ireland’s unionists. In the past, the Liberal Democrats were open to a coalition, but this time, Tim Farron said during the campaign that he would not go into coalition with anyone. Theresa May’s authority would be destroyed. She would have called for an election when she had not needed to, throwing away the Tory majority.
If Labour becomes the largest party, it might try a minority government. It would need support from others, possibly the Scottish National Party (SNP), but a formal coalition seems less likely.

5. Labour Majority

Likely? NOT BLOODY LIKELY.

Even the polls predicting an increase in the votes for Labour do not suggest that Jeremy Corbyn is headed for the PM’s seat. His last 2 years of leadership have been marked by bad ratings and divisions in the party. The immediate challenge would be enormous. It would mean that the partner sitting down with the EU at the negotiation table would be completely different from the one that wrote the official statement indicating Britain’s wish to exit. They would also have to handle the immediate turmoil in the markets, which do not expect a Labour win.

Opening pic by Shutterstock