The American Snow White and the 27 European Dwarf

Choosing Warsaw as the location of the NATO Summit in June 2016 can be considered as a symbolic gesture towards the member states on the Eastern flank, a reassurance of commitment toward collective defence. While the previous NATO Summit in Wales in 2014 was expected to be one of the most lacklustre and foreseeable meeting of head of states, the Russian annexation of the Crimea changed every predictions in a minute. Almost everyone counted on the reducing role of the Alliance in the post-Afghanistan/Iraq era. 

We should not forget that participation of NATO in the ISAF mission was uncertain in the first place – the Americans decided to use the NATO command system for operations only in 2013. On the one hand, considering NATO’s limited mandate, the operation can be understood as a success from a military perspective. On the other hand, a lot of questions remained politically unanswered, but this problem is outside of NATO’s scope.

After the era of extensive crisis management operations, the actuality and sometimes the mere existence of NATO was questioned and criticized, so to say it was considered as a dispersed toolbox or an old man’s lounge and not as the glorious military alliance which won the Cold War. From this perspective, the Ukrainian crisis gave an answer to these questions –  paradoxically, Moscow helped the Atlantists to convince hesitant members of NATO about the importance of the Transatlantic Alliance. A huge demand developed to build a robust, rapid and ready alliance again and to increase the military budget spendings in order to deliver both at the Eastern and Southern flank.

The members strengthened their commitment about what they promised in Wales. The Enhanced Forward Presence (EFP) will be supported by the deployment of 4 battalions (4.000 troops) in Poland and in the Baltic states. The rotational presence though does not violate the 1997 NATO-Russia Act, because it does not imply the establishment of a permanent military base. Another important aspect of the summit was to extend the operational capacity of NATO to cyberspace. Regarding the Eastern flank, the heads of state promised the further development of the command structure, which means the establishment of NATO Force Integration Units (NFIU) so that to fasten the chain of command to be able to respond threats deriving from hybrid warfare. In order to handle the unexpected military threats, NATO created a Very High Readiness Joint Task Force, which is deployable in 2-7 days, and the size of which was enhanced to 15.000 personnel. For the seven framework nations which are responsible for the command structure of VJTF, NATO outlined a rotational plan in force until 2022. NATO Response Force was to be increased to 40.000 troops and the command HQ of NATO Ballistic Missile Defence has reached the operational status for the time of the summit. In order to handle the challenges rising in the Southern Flank, NATO took part in operations on the Aegean Sea and supports Turkey’s air policing with AWACS (Airborne Warning and Control System) surveillance capabilities and Patriot anti-aircraft systems. Furthermore, the member states decided to enhance cooperation with the European Union.

Regarding budgetary issues, NATO can still be conceived as a cooperation between the American Snow White and the 27 European Dwarfs, who pay for less than 25% of the overall costs combined. While the British, Estonians, Greeks and Poles reached the GDP 2% requirement in terms of their defence budget, most of the European members are underachievers. This comparison shows different results if we look at the costs of the political and institutional units of NATO, like the International Staff. Nevertheless, the United States as a superpower pursues global interests, so it needs to maintain global capabilities, while the core function of NATO is rather to provide collective defence than to be the guardian of the planet. It is also important to see that the main aim of the 2% requirement is mostly about projecting credibility and symbolic commitment. US leaders have recently expressed their concern in this regard several times, and have tried to encourage Europeans to spend more on their own defence. This idea, therefore, is not an invention of Donald Trump alone, but it is a fact that his rhetoric shows a shift towards a more aggressive way of communication.

A meeting of the Ministers of Defence (hereinafter: MoD) was organized on 26-27 October 2016 in order to reassure members of the commitment towards the Warsaw decisions. MoDs expressed their views on the importance of EFP and assured everyone that the deployment of the four battalions serve no other purpose than defence; the aim of deployment is to deescalate the conflict. Plans were proposed about an increasing NATO presence in the Black Sea area as well. Stability and neighbourhood policy are still important aspects for NATO, thus it supports partnership programs and takes an active role in the combat against ISIL and other terrorist organizations. Therefore, NATO provides support for training programs, such as the one of more than 100 officers in the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan. NATO became a member of the Global Coalition against ISIL and pledged to provide surveillance support with its AWACS planes. This will be the first military operation in NATO’s history where command functions are not in the hands of NATO officers; their role is limited only to support the mission. The MoD meeting was successful in term of coming to decision about the NATO Aegean Sea mission and the role of NATO in the EU’s Operation Sophia on the Mediterranean Sea. NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg and Federica Mogherini, High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy also discussed the potentials in EU-NATO cooperation. 

During the North Atlantic Council meeting on 6-7 December 2016 that involved the Ministers of Foreign Affairs, the member-states negotiated the EU-NATO cooperation and more than 40 different topics of the agenda were addressed. Stoltenberg argued that neither organization has the full operational arsenal to provide security, but they could achieve more together. MFAs also met Mr. Salahuddin Rabbani, the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Afghanistan and negotiated the financial details of Operation Resolute Support. Furthermore, there was another meeting with Pavlo Klimkin, the MFA of Ukraine, where NATO member states provided him with their full support and welcomed the reform initiatives in the country.

The next NAC meeting with MoDs took place on 15-16 February 2017. Ministers decided to create a new regional hub at the HQ of the Joint Force Command Naples (JFCNP) in Italy. Its main task will be to evaluate and analyse threats coming from the MENA region. MoDs identified the demand for renewed surveillance capabilities and emphasized their need to create a plan for the post-2035 era, when the presently operational AWACS will be retired as planned. Mr. Stoltenberg raised awareness to the need of a more proportionate defence spending and that of burden sharing. While it is a good sign that a 3.8% growth has been experienced in real terms only in 2016, there is still much to do. 

As the Warsaw Summit decision repeated the political goals of Wales, the planned meeting of the heads of state in Brussels in May 2017 is not likely to bring significantly new developments either. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson suggested that Europeans spend more on defence, but expressed his support towards NATO as well as Gen. James Mattis, Secretary of Defence. One can expect that President Trump will do the same on 25 May.

The (lack of) significance of the meeting is revealed by the fact that while originally it was announced as a NATO Summit, the member states now refer to it only as a special meeting. It is also telling how the time of the event was determined. It is organized on 25 May, Ascension Day, which is a national holiday in the Catholic Belgium and traditionally it is not a workday in NATO either. Despite all the hardness ahead, it is quite sure that they will work out how to implement a successful meeting.

Opening pic by mzv.sk