South Korea elected a new President after the impeachment of Park Geun-Hye. But what do we know about Moon Jae-In? What should we know? What can we expect with regard to regional balance?
The outcome of the elections proved to be in line with the predictions in multiple ways. First, South Korean politics tend to go through a paradigm change about every 10 years. The two paradigms are represented by conservative and progressive administrations, and therefore, after the conservative Park government, many forecasted a progressive win. Out of the 15 candidates running for office, only three liberals were in the lead, among whom Moon Jae-In of the Together Democratic Party had the best chance to win right from the start of the campaign. His lead was so overwhelming that the combined average support for the conservatives was around 17%, while, for the non-conservatives, it was a remarkable 70%. The scandal around Park Geun-Hye’s impeachment had such a great impact on Koreans living abroad that overseas voting was at record high as well.
Moon Jae-In.
Source: Business Insider
But what is there to know about the progressive candidates? The most important feature in the eyes of the citizens is undeniably the wish to engage more with North Korea. The South Koreans have been an advocate of reunification for a long time, despite the adversarial behavior of the North. In the same way, this side of the political spectrum favors better relations with the Chinese, most likely in order to restore regional balance. These two policy points are naturally strongly correlated: Reunification is necessary for improving the cohesion of the East Asian region, but against the Northern threat, a defined covenant is much needed with other regional actors like Japan and Russia, and most of all, China. Interestingly enough, according to the Asian Institute’s analysis, voters who prioritized economic policies voted for Moon, while those with their eyes on foreign policy voted for the conservatives.
So what does Moon stand for? Regarding foreign policy, the former human rights lawyer for North Korean refugee parents is not even considered the most progressive. During his campaign, he emphasized the need to develop an indigenous defense system against the North, and to resume the Six-Party Talks between the regional players. He also frequently echoed the international consensus about establishing a peace treaty between the two Koreas only if the Northern counterpart is willing to denuclearize. On the other hand, he also suggested increased cultural, social, and sports exchanges between the two Koreas. In this respect, pragmatic viewpoints outweigh the Sunshine Policy, which is the policy of more active engagement with the North. The Sunshine Policy would result in a newly established economic belt through the East China Sea, realizing economic unification before there a national one. And this is very much playing it safe: Seoul is not so naïve as to initiate a complete unification at the first opportunity, since the North Korean economy is utterly unfit for adopting a liberalized market model. Besides the obvious underdevelopment, there is also a problem with the now nearly institutionalized black market.
The attitude towards Japan is also twofold. There is an overwhelming distaste toward the 2015 comfort women deal, which was concluded by the Japanese government and former President Park Geun-Hye as a final and irreversible closure to the half-century-old dispute about wartime sex slaves. The deal included a large sum paid by the Japanese, as well as the removal of the provocative statue in front of the Japanese Embassy in Seoul. Prime Minister Abe Shinzo kept his part of the agreement, but after a regrettable visit to the controversial Yasukuni shrine by the Defense Minister, the Koreans felt offended enough to try to call off the deal. Naturally, once the deal is concluded, there is not much to do. Thus, what several Korean politicians chose to do is characterize every policy of Park Geun-Hye as wrong and unwanted due to her scandalous impeachment. There is a push to undo every policy and provision that she created during her term, including the comfort women deal. Moon Jae-In also advocated the annulment of the comfort women deal during his campaign. However, during his first week in office, he conversed with his Japanese counterpart multiple times, and they both agreed to avoiding clinging to historical traumas, and proceed with enriching cooperation between the two nations.
Source: Japan Today
A clear duality lingers around President Moon. Naturally, the binding power of campaign promises varies between countries, and the Asian heads of state are known to change their rhetoric depending on whether they are talking to domestic or international media. The comfort women deal is a major divider between Japan and the ROK, but we should not forget that they are important trading allies, and South Korea needs Japan’s aid in countering the Northern threat. And this is just another argument against the Sunshine Policy. A possible rapprochement with North Korea might very well alienate allies like Japan and the U.S., who continue to have a policy of maximum pressure on Pyongyang. As U.S. aircraft carriers are being sent to the Korean Peninsula, the Sunshine Policy is drifting farther away from reality. Therefore, the first challenge of President Moon will be to carefully separate policies that helped him get elected from those that would be appropriate in the present international situation.
Opening pic by Japan Today